(a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a far-field overpressure blast effect analysis that demonstrates compliance with safety criteria in § 450.101, either -
(1) Prior to the day of the operation, accounting for all foreseeable conditions within the flight commit criteria; or
(2) During the countdown using the best available input data, including flight commit criteria and flight abort rules.
(b) Analysis constraints. The analysis must account for -
(1) The explosive capability of the vehicle and hazardous debris at impact and at altitude;
(2) The potential influence of meteorological conditions and terrain characteristics; and
(3) The potential for broken windows due to peak incident overpressures below 1.0 psi and related casualties based on the characteristics of exposed windows and the population's susceptibility to injury, with considerations including, at a minimum, shelter types, window types, and the time of day of the proposed operation.
(c) Application requirements. An applicant must submit a description of the far-field overpressure analysis, including all assumptions and justifications for the assumptions, analysis methods, input data, and results. At a minimum, the application must include:
(1) A description of the population centers, terrain, building types, and window characteristics used as input to the far-field overpressure analysis;
(2) A description of the methods used to compute the foreseeable explosive yield probability pairs, and the complete set of yield-probability pairs, used as input to the far-field overpressure analysis;
(3) A description of the methods used to compute peak incident overpressures as a function of distance from the explosion and prevailing meteorological conditions, including sample calculations for a representative range of the foreseeable meteorological conditions, yields, and population center locations;
(4) A description of the methods used to compute the probability of window breakage, including tabular data and graphs for the probability of breakage as a function of the peak incident overpressure for a representative range of window types, building types, and yields accounted for;
(5) A description of the methods used to compute the probability of casualty for a representative individual, including tabular data and graphs for the probability of casualty, as a function of location relative to the window and the peak incident overpressure for a representative range of window types, building types, and yields accounted for;
(6) Tabular data and graphs showing the hypothetical location of any member of the public that could be exposed to a probability of casualty of 1 × 10−5 or greater for neighboring operations personnel, and 1 × 10−6 or greater for other members of the public, given foreseeable conditions;
(7) The maximum expected casualties that could result from far-field overpressure hazards given foreseeable conditions; and
(8) A description of the meteorological measurements used as input to any real-time far-field overpressure analysis.