(a) General. A flight safety analysis must include a flight hazard area analysis that identifies any region of land, sea, or air that must be surveyed, publicized, controlled, or evacuated in order to control the risk to the public. The analysis must account for, at a minimum -
(1) The regions of land, sea, and air potentially exposed to hazardous debris generated during normal flight events and all reasonably foreseeable failure modes;
(2) Any hazard controls implemented to control risk from any hazard;
(3) The limits of a launch or reentry vehicle's normal flight, including -
(i) Atmospheric conditions that are no less severe than the worst atmospheric conditions under which flight might be attempted; and
(ii) Uncertainty in the atmospheric conditions;
(4) All hazardous debris;
(5) Sources of debris dispersion in accordance with § 450.121(c); and
(6) A probability of one for any planned debris hazards or planned impacts.
(b) Waterborne vessel hazard areas. The flight hazard area analysis for waterborne vessels must determine the areas and durations for regions of water -
(1) That are necessary to contain, with 97 percent probability of containment, all debris resulting from normal flight events capable of causing a casualty to persons on waterborne vessels;
(2) That are necessary to contain either where the probability of debris capable of causing a casualty impacting on or near a vessel would exceed 1 × 10−5, accounting for all relevant hazards, or where the individual probability of casualty for any person on board a vessel would exceed the individual risk criteria in § 450.101(a)(2) or (b)(2); and
(3) Where reduced vessel traffic is necessary to meet the collective risk criteria in § 450.101(a)(1) or (b)(1).
(c) Land hazard areas. The flight hazard area analysis for land must determine the durations and areas regions of land -
(1) That are necessary to contain, with 97 percent probability of containment, all debris resulting from normal flight events capable of causing a casualty to any person on land;
(2) Where the individual probability of casualty for any person on land would exceed the individual risk criteria in § 450.101(a)(2) or (b)(2); and
(3) Where reduced population is necessary to meet the collective risk criteria in § 450.101(a)(1) or (b)(1).
(d) Airspace hazard volumes. The flight hazard area analysis for airspace must determine the durations and volumes for regions of air to be submitted to the FAA for approval -
(1) That are necessary to contain, with 97 percent probability of containment, all debris resulting from normal flight events capable of causing a casualty to persons on an aircraft; and
(2) Where the probability of impact on an aircraft would exceed the aircraft risk criterion in § 450.101(a)(3) or (b)(3).
(e) Application requirements. An applicant must submit:
(1) A description of the methodology to be used in the flight hazard area analysis in accordance with § 450.115(c), including:
(i) Classes of waterborne vessel and vulnerability criteria employed; and
(ii) Classes of aircraft and vulnerability criteria employed.
(2) Tabular data and graphs of the results of the flight hazard area analysis, including:
(i) Geographical coordinates of all hazard areas that are representative of those to be published, in accordance with § 450.161, prior to any proposed operation;
(ii) Representative 97 percent probability of containment contours for all debris resulting from normal flight events capable of causing a casualty for all locations specified in paragraph (a) of this section;
(iii) Representative individual probability of casualty contours for all locations specified in paragraph (a) of this section, including tabular data and graphs showing the hypothetical location of any member of the public that could be exposed to a probability of casualty of 1 × 10−5 or greater for neighboring operations personnel, and 1 × 10−6 or greater for other members of the public, given all foreseeable conditions within the flight commit criteria;
(iv) If applicable, representative 1 × 10−5 and 1 × 10−6 probability of impact contours for all debris capable of causing a casualty to persons on a waterborne vessel regardless of location; and
(v) Representative 1 × 10−6 and 1 × 10−7 probability of impact contours for all debris capable of causing a casualty to persons on an aircraft regardless of location.