(a) Contents of load forecasts prepared under a load forecast work plan. In addition to the minimum requirements for load forecasts under § 1710.205, load forecasts developed and submitted by borrowers required to have a load forecast work plan shall include the following:
(1) Scope of the load forecast. The narrative shall address the overall approach, time periods, and expected internal and external uses of the forecast. Examples of internal uses include providing information for developing or monitoring demand side management programs, supply resource planning, load flow studies, wholesale power marketing, retail marketing, cost of service studies, rate policy and development, financial planning, and evaluating the potential effects on electric revenues caused by competition from alternative energy sources or other electric suppliers. Examples of external uses include meeting state and Federal regulatory requirements, obtaining financial ratings, and participation in reliability council, power pool, regional transmission group, power supplier or member system forecasting and planning activities.
(2) Resources used to develop the load forecast. The discussion shall identify and discuss the borrower personnel, consultants, data processing, methods and other resources used in the preparation of the load forecast. The borrower shall identify the borrower's member and, as applicable, member personnel that will serve as project leaders or liaisons with the authority to make decisions and commit resources within the scope of the current and future work plans.
(3) A comprehensive description of the database used in the study. The narrative shall describe the procedures used to collect, develop, verify, validate, update, and maintain the data. A data dictionary thoroughly defining the database shall be included. The borrower shall make all or parts of the database available or otherwise accessible to RUS in electronic format, if requested.
(4) A narrative for each new load forecast or update of a load forecast discussing the methods and procedures used in the analysis and modeling of the borrower's electric system loads as provided for in the load forecast work plan.
(5) A narrative discussing the borrower's past, existing, and forecast of future electric system loads. The narrative must identify and explain substantive assumptions and other pertinent information used to support the estimates presented in the load forecast.
(6) A narrative discussing load forecast uncertainty or alternative futures that may determine the borrower's actual loads. Examples of economic scenarios, weather conditions, and other uncertainties that borrowers may decide to address in their analysis include:
(i) Most-probable assumptions, with normal weather;
(ii) Pessimistic assumptions, with normal weather;
(iii) Optimistic assumptions, with normal weather;
(iv) Most-probable assumptions, with severe weather;
(v) Most-probable assumptions, with mild weather;
(vi) Impacts of wholesale or retail competition; or
(vii) new environmental requirements.
(7) A summary of the forecast's results on an annual basis. Include alternative futures, as applicable. This summary shall be designed to accommodate the transfer of load forecast information to a borrower's other planning or loan support documents. Computer-generated forms or electronic submissions of data are acceptable. Graphs, tables, spreadsheets or other exhibits shall be included throughout the forecast as appropriate.
(8) A narrative discussing the coordination activities conducted between a power supply borrower and its members, as applicable, and between the borrower and RUS.
(b) Compliance with a load forecast work plan. A borrower required to maintain a load forecast work plan must also be able to demonstrate that both it and its RUS borrower members are in compliance with its load forecast work plan.
[65 FR 14786, Mar. 20, 2000, as amended at 84 FR 32611, July 9, 2019]